Author(s): Aadya Ambastha
Paper Details: Volume 3, Issue 2
Citation: IJLSSS 3(2) 30
Page No: 347 – 357
Climate change refers to a shift in typical weather patterns, including factors like temperature, humidity, rainfall, cloud cover, and wind behaviour, as well as alterations in how often or intensely these occur. While Earth’s climate has naturally fluctuated throughout its history over extended periods, this process is gradual.
However, the term “climate change” today often refers to the rapid transformations observed over the last 50 years. Scientific consensus indicates these changes are not the result of long- term natural cycles but are largely caused by “global warming” and “human actions”.1 The concentration of greenhouse-gases, particularly carbon dioxide, in the atmosphere has surged, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, & natural gas. These fuels are widely used for transportation, electricity generation, home heating, and industrial activities. Additionally, deforestation has played a role in altering atmospheric conditions. Trees capture carbon dioxide during their growth but release greenhouse gases when cut down and either burned or left to decay.
Currently, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are nearly 1.5 times higher than they were during the industrial revolution approximately 200 years ago.2 The greater the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the more heat is retained, leading to a warmer planet. This phenomenon is referred to as “global warming,” the increasing temperatures affecting Earth.
Climate change stands as one of the greatest challenges confronting humanity, with its effects extending far beyond environmental degradation.3 Its repercussions infiltrate social, economic, and political spheres, reshaping global systems and amplifying existing vulnerabilities. As rising temperatures, extreme weather patterns, and resource shortages disproportionately impact marginalized communities, the competition for scarce resources escalates. Moreover,
* Post graduate student (LL.M.), Chanakya National Law University, Patna, Bihar.
1 Climate Change Widespread, Rapid, and Intensifying – IPCC. https://www.ipcc.ch/2021/08/09/ar6-wg1- 20210809-pr/ , Last Accessed 03 Sept. 2024.
2 Change, National Aeronautics and Space Administartion Global Climate. “Carbon Dioxide Concentration | NASA Global Climate Change.” Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet, https://climate.nasa.gov/vital- signs/carbon-dioxide?intent=121 ,Accessed 01 Sept. 2024.
3 Nations, United. “Climate Change”, https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/climate-change ,Accessed 10 Sept. 2024.
Global climate disruption is having significant, interconnected effects on life across the planet. The environmental and health challenges it presents are closely tied to issues such as poverty, socioeconomic inequality, population growth, migration, the rise of new diseases, exposure to harmful chemicals, and the destruction of ecosystems, including the loss of biodiversity. This article examines the intricate connection between climate change and collective violence, exploring how environmental pressures can destabilize societies and trigger conflicts across local, national, and international contexts. Through an analysis of global patterns and case studies, this study seeks to highlight the interconnected nature of these crises, emphasizing the urgent need for comprehensive, forward-thinking strategies to address both environmental and social vulnerabilities to reduce the likelihood of conflict.
CLIMATE CHANGE AS A CATALYST FOR VIOLENCE
Climate change has a profound effect on essential natural resources like water, fertile land, and food supplies. Extended droughts, desertification, and shifts in rainfall patterns can trigger water shortages and decreased agricultural yields. As these resources become scarcer, competition between communities and nations grows, often escalating into conflict. Additionally, extreme weather events and environmental degradation drive millions of people to abandon their houses in search of more stable and safer living conditions. This mass migration puts pressure on resources and infrastructure in the areas they move to, potentially leading to friction between migrants and local populations. An illustration of this is the Syrian Civil War, which began with a severe drought that forced people from rural areas to relocate, increasing social unrest and urban overpopulation.4
Key sectors like water, food security, sea level rise, migration, and extreme weather are frequently highlighted in analyses of how climate change is affecting resources and communities which have been discussed as under:
The supply of “water” for agriculture and society is becoming more erratic, particularly in tropical, dry, and semi-arid countries.5 Productivity in agriculture and cattle production is already being impacted by decreased rainfall and increased variability in its timing and location. Furthermore, unmaintained water infrastructure and excessive groundwater use intensify urban water stress. Water resource agreements among countries are based on steady water flows and have little adaptability to deal with varying water levels.
Climate change affects all dimensions of “food security”. Agricultural output declines in regions facing uncertain water supplies, rising pest pressures, or temperatures that exceed crop limits. 6Price volatility also impacts food access, particularly for low-income households where food constitutes a major part of their spending, leading them to consume less nutritious options. The food crisis, likely influenced by climate-related droughts and floods in key grain-producing
4 De Chatel, F, “The Role of Drought and Climate Change in the Syrian Uprising: Untangling the Triggers of the Revolution”, (2014)
5 Öjendal, J, Earl, A., Jägerskog, A, Cascao, A.E., Hansson, S., & Shwain, A..; “Transboundary Water Management and the Cilmate Change Debate”, Earthscan (2015)
6 A1 – 1 Sustainability, “Food Security and Climate Change: Three Intertwined Challenges” | Climate Smart Agriculture Sourcebook | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. https://www.fao.org/climate-smart-agriculture-sourcebook/concept/module-a1-introducing-csa/chapter-a1-1/en/ Accessed 02 Sept. 2024.
regions, revealed how such events can significantly affect local food prices and availability.7 The crisis had long-lasting effects on marginalized groups, particularly women, as people were forced to adopt harmful coping strategies. It also sparked social unrest in many countries where governments struggled to mitigate its impact.
The consequences of “sea level rise” are hard to forecast, as modern society has no precedent for dealing with such a challenge. Many major global cities, located near coastlines, will be affected, as will small island nations in regions like the Pacific, Indian Ocean, and Caribbean. This will impact livelihoods, economies, trade, political representation, and other factors, necessitating long-term planning and preparedness, as the changes are expected to unfold gradually.8 However, the ability to make decisions and adapt will depend heavily on context, with governance and adaptive capacity playing crucial roles.
It is undeniable that climate change causes “extreme weather events” to become more powerful and, in certain situations, more frequent, but it also makes their timing and locations more unpredictable. This includes prolonged episodes of intense heat, which are increasingly understood to pose a serious health risk, especially when paired with high humidity, in addition to storms, floods, and droughts. These severe occurrences impair public services, hinder business operations, destroy material assets, and result in fatalities and injuries. Poor households are particularly vulnerable since they frequently live in the riskiest neighbourhoods.
“Migration” due to climate change has garnered significant attention, with the term “climate refugees” suggesting a direct link to forced migration, akin to those fleeing due to armed conflict or persecution based on ethnicity, politics, or religion. These “climate refugees” are sometimes portrayed as a security risk to the countries where they seek asylum.9
However, migration studies highlight that a variety of factors influence decisions to migrate, and resource scarcity may be one of many, but not necessarily the primary, drivers. Migration can take many forms, including seasonal, more permanent internal migration, or international movement that may be either permanent or circular, where migrants regularly return to their home country for varying periods. Circular migrants are often integrated into the economies
7 Chisholm, N., Wanjiku Kelbert, Al., Scott-Villiers, P. and Hossain, N; “Precarious Lives: Food, Work and Care after the Global Food Crisis”, Oxfam/IDS Report, (2016)
8 Malik, S., Khan, F., & Rehman, A. “Sheltering from a gathering storm: Temperature resilience in Pakistan. Boulder”, CO: ISET-International, (2014)
9 Borges, Isabel M. “Environmental Change, Forced Displacement and International Law: From Legal Protection Gaps to Protection Solutions”, 1st ed., Routledge, 2018. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203712023
and societies of both their origin and destination countries. People impacted by sudden natural disasters, such as earthquakes, floods, or storms, often migrate temporarily and usually return to their homes afterward. They often endure precarious conditions, as governments attempt to limit migration. Along their dangerous journeys and upon arrival, these migrants are frequently subjected to human rights abuses. In regions with pastoralist populations, central authorities sometimes restrict their traditional movements both within and across borders.
CASE STUDIES
THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR
In the past, Syrian farmers enjoyed fertile lands and productive agricultural conditions, supported by the government’s promotion of staple crops during the 1970s through the 1990s. However, Syria, with a population of about 17 million, has faced three significant droughts since the 1980s. The most severe of these, lasting from 2006 to 2010, was noted as the worst drought in approximately 900 years.10
Rising temperatures and less rainfall caused desertification, seriously damaging agricultural areas, particularly in eastern Syria. As a result, 85% of the country’s cattle perished and 800,000 people lost their source of income.11
With crop production falling by as much as two-thirds, Syria was forced to import large quantities of grain, causing food prices to double. Despite these imports, the drought persisted, and hopelessness grew. This situation raises the question of why 1.5 million rural workers migrated to urban areas in search of employment. Those who remained in rural areas, primarily impoverished farmers, became vulnerable targets for recruitment by extremist groups like the Islamic State (IS).
The conflict that began in March 2011 has displaced half of Syria’s population, with 6.8 million displaced internally and a similar number seeking refuge in neighbouring countries. Many of those displaced moved to Syria’s coastal region, which contains over 90% of the country’s vegetation.12 The influx of displaced people has led to severe land degradation, soil erosion, and environmental pollution.
Syria’s environmental crisis has deeply affected its population, leaving many communities without livelihoods and forcing them into displacement. Climate change-related displacement has been widespread, driven by extreme weather events, the loss of agricultural livelihoods, and the worsening water crisis in the country.
THE CASE OF LAKE CHAD BASIN
10 Selby, Jan, et al. “Climate Change and the Syrian Civil War Revisited.” Political Geography, vol. 60, Sept. 2017, pp. 232–44. ScienceDirect, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2017.05.007
11 Miguel, Edward, et al. “Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach” Journal of Political Economy, vol. 112, no. 4, 2004, pp. 725–53. JSTOR, https://doi.org/10.1086/421174
12 ibid
Lake Chad, located in the semi-arid Sahel region south of the Sahara, is primarily sustained by the Chari River, which contributes 90% of its water through the Lagone tributary. Historically, the lake’s size has fluctuated during extended droughts, and as it continues to shrink, local communities face increasing challenges, leading to heightened competition for limited resources.
Tensions over food, water, and land have grown more intense in recent decades, leading to an increase in the frequency of intercommunal clashes and displacements. This is seen in communities like Darak, where Nigerians and Cameroonians frequently fight over who gets to use the water supplies.
The violence in Cameroon’s Logone Birni commune, which is situated in the Far North Region, is one striking illustration of how conflict and displacement are being fueled by climate change. As tensions between the farming, herding, and fishing groups grew, violence broke out in mid- 2021 in this region, which is along the Logone River that feeds into Lake Chad.13
There are 246 million people living in the four nations that surround Lake Chad: Cameroon, Nigeria, Niger, and Chad. This population has been growing over the past few decades and is predicted to double over the next 20 years. Local populations’ vulnerability has been made worse by the emergence of international terrorism in the region, which has coincided with rivalry over diminishing water resources.
THE CASE OF MALI
Mali is a shining example of the complex relationship that exists in the Sahel between livelihoods, climate change, and violence. The nation has experienced significant climate effects since the early 2000s, along with a variety of violent events like jihadist insurgencies, urban riots, intercommunal conflicts, and military coups. Farmers, herders, and fishermen have long coexisted in the Niger River Delta of Mali, with local institutions traditionally handling conflicts between them. Ethnic identities and livelihoods are frequently associated: the animist Songhai and Bambara are mainly farmers, whereas the Muslim Fulani and Tuareg are usually pastoralists.14
13 Johnmary Ani, Kelechi, and Dominique Emmanuel Uwizeyimana. “Climate Change and Changing Environmental Insecurity in the Lake Chad Region.” Journal of African Union Studies, vol. 9, no. 2, Aug. 2020,
pp. 65–88. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.31920/2050-4306/2020/9n2a4
14 Butt, T. A., et al. “The Economic and Food Security Implications of Climate Change in Mali.” Climatic Change, vol. 68, no. 3, Feb. 2005, pp. 355–78. Springer Link, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-6014-0
The disagreements that arise from the interaction of governmental, religious, and ethnic failures, exacerbated by climate change, are shown by the communal clashes in Mali. The Niger River, which benefits both farmers and herders, is a prime example. 15The herders raise burgu, a crop that serves as cattle fodder during the dry season, while the farmers plant rice. Since burgu needs deeper water than rice does, confrontations between farmers and pastoralists sometimes arise when rice farmers intrude on burgu fields during increasingly frequent dry spells. A quarter of burgu fields have been turned into rice fields since the 1950s due to decreased rainfall.16This change demonstrates how tensions might increase due to water scarcity brought on by climate change.
Without strong institutions to resolve these disputes, Fulani and Tuareg groups have increasingly joined jihadist movements in northern Mali in recent years. Two key factors contribute to this: perceived government discrimination against these groups and the worsening competition over water resources intensified by climate change. It’s notable that Ahmadou Koufa, leader of MUJAO, is Fulani, and Iyad Ag Ghali, leader of Ansar Dine, is Tuareg. Jihadist violence has, in turn, provoked retaliatory attacks by Bambara and Songhai agriculturalists, creating a vicious cycle of violence and intolerance.
MELTING OF ARCTIC ICE
If carbon emissions continue to increase at the current pace, the Arctic is expected to become ice-free during the summer by 2040. In addition to the environmental risks this poses, there will likely be significant geopolitical consequences. The Arctic region is home to vast, untapped natural resources, including an estimated 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil reserves, 30% of its underwater gas, and up to $1 trillion worth of metals and minerals, many of which are essential for electronics. 17Currently, some shipping routes in the region can only be accessed with the help of specialized icebreakers. However, if the Arctic becomes ice-free, these routes could open up to a larger range of commercial vessels.
15 ibid
16 N’gobi, Gnanki Mariam Lafia, et al. “Climate Change and Biodiversity in West Africa Sahel: A Review.” Research in Ecology, vol. 4, no. 3, Sept. 2022, pp. 20–29. journals.bilpubgroup.com, https://doi.org/10.30564/re.v4i3.4961
17 Huebert, Rob. “Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions: Power Politics and Regime Building in the Arctic.” Polar Oceans Governance in an Era of Environmental Change, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2014, pp. 65–85. www.elgaronline.com, https://www.elgaronline.com/edcollchap/edcoll/9781781955444/9781781955444.00013.xml
While the fragile Arctic environment faces considerable threats, these developments will also have major implications for global supply chains. The newly accessible routes could lower transportation costs and cut shipping times by as much as 40% for tankers and cargo ships.18
At present, Russia holds significant control over Arctic shipping routes. An increase in shipping traffic could boost Russia’s trade relations with China, further solidifying their economic partnership. The vast resource potential of the Arctic has fuelled competition among the nations bordering the region. For instance, the Lomonsov Ridge is a contested area, with Russia, Greenland, Denmark, and Canada all staking claims.19
18 ibid
19 Backus, George A., and James Hassler Strickland. Climate-Derived Tensions in Arctic Security. SAND2008- 6342, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), Albuquerque, NM, and Livermore, CA (United States), 1 Sept.
2008. www.osti.gov, https://doi.org/10.2172/941406
CONCLUSION & SUGGESTION
Climate change is causing violence and conflict due, to worsening political tensions along with economic challenges, in place already that need attention. A comprehensive strategy involving conflict resolution, better governance, environmental management, and economic tactics is needed to properly handle these issues.
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION
It’s important to focus on improving management by adopting practices that boost resilience, against climate related challenges to reduce the likelihood of conflict triggered by climate change effects. Investments should be directed towards constructing infrastructure of withstanding extreme weather conditions and implementing advanced water management systems and climate resilient agricultural techniques. Taking a resource management approach and a holistic approach might lessen rivalry and decrease conflict by concentrating on the requirements of many communities and sectors.
ENHANCING THE METHODS, FOR RESOLVING CONFLICTS
Effective conflict resolution methods are crucial, for managing conflicts related to resources effectively. To settle disagreements over land and resources amicably authorities should. Promote mediation processes within communities. It is essential to implement structures to tackle these issues and ensure access to resources. Additionally international collaboration is vital for resolving disputes that cross borders, such as shared resources, like water.
ENHANCING GOVERNANCE AND STRENGTHENING INSTITUTIONAL CAPABILITIES
Strong institutions and effective governance play a role, in mitigating the impact of violence stemming from climate change issues. Increasing the autonomy of local authorities can empower them to address disputes and handle the repercussions of climate change more effectively. Addressing grievances and Preventing conflicts necessitate enhancing the capabilities of security forces and ensuring governance practices.
PROMOTING ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION AND SOCIAL PROTECTION
Reducing vulnerability to climatic changes and averting conflict require economic diversification. To lessen dependency on sectors that are sensitive to climate change, policies should encourage the growth of alternative livelihoods like sustainable tourism and renewable energy. Social protection programs, such as food assistance and unemployment compensation, can aid people impacted by disruptions brought on by climate change. Mitigating economic challenges and lowering the risk of extremist recruitment require investments in education and job creation.
FOSTERING REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
Coordination of regional and global initiatives is necessary to combat climate change and its effects. The resources required for mitigation and adaptation can be obtained by creating funds for climate adaption and endorsing international initiatives. In order to better handle cross- border difficulties and assist vulnerable populations, it will be more effective to fortify international alliances and regional organizations. Global climate agreements should take into account the unique requirements of impacted areas and guarantee sufficient financial and technological assistance.
In order to efficaciously reduce violence aggravated by climate change, it is very important to adopt a comprehensive approach that could address environmental, social, and governance factors. Implementing these recommendations can help in reducing the risks of climate- generated conflict & in building resilience in vulnerable communities. To effectively manage the multifaceted issues brought about by climate change and to ensure a more stable and secure future, collaborative activities at the local, national, and international levels are needed.
In the attempt to eliminate an ever-increasing violence stemming from climate change, it is crucial to follow the integrated approach that would include environmental, social, and management issues. Implementing these suggestions can assist in minimizing the risks of climate change induced conflict & in building resilience in vulnerable communities. In order to effectively manage the multifaceted issues brought about by climate change it requires some “collaboration at the local, national and international” levels to devise or monitor some of the places that people will live in’ which will provide for a more secure future.